Iran's next nuke-talk ploy
Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, has declared the lifting of sanctions on the country as his top priority - even as he also insists that he won't budge an inch from the Islamic Republic's positions on key issues, including the controversial nuclear program"We call on everyone to approach us not with sanctions but with respect," he said the other day.
In other words, Rouhani is asking the United Nations, the European Union and the United States to surrender to the Islamic Republic. That would mean canceling five unanimous Security Council resolutions and a range of sanctions approved by Congress and 28 EU parliaments.
Trust me: Rouhani says he wants talks with the West - but not about stopping Iran's nuclear programs.
How does Rouhani hope to square this circle?
He's plainly chosen a tactic developed by the mullahs over centuries - mumatilah, or temporizing. It's designed to buy time without giving concessions, especially to the kuffar (Infidel).
Rouhani's position is based on solid theological foundations. Here is the logic:
Islam, as the only true faith that cancels all other faiths, is the measure of everything. And Iran today has the world's only truly Islamic government, so it represents Islam as a whole. Thus, any Iranian concession would be a setback for Islam and an advance for the Infidel - and is therefore unacceptable.
Yet Iran lacks the power to impose its will on others in the name of Islam, so its relations with many countries have ended in an impasse.
Take the status of the Caspian Sea, the inland body of water that Iran shares with Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. All these states except Iran have reached agreements on the exploitation of the Caspian's resources and the protection of its environment. But Iran (the sole representative of Islam) can't make any concessions - so no accord has been possible. But, lest the others agree to carve Iran out, the Islamic Republic has used mumatilah to keep the hope of an accord alive during 20 years of negotiations.
Iran has also used mumatilah during almost 10 years of negotiations with Iraq for the implementation of the 1975 agreement signed by the two neighbors when the shah and Saddam Hussein were in power. Iran demands total surrender from Iraq on all issues, something that no Iraqi government could offer.
Another example: Iran's application to join the World Trade Organization. A decade of negotiations have led nowhere because Iran demands special treatment in view of its "Islamic values."
Of course the nuclear program is the big enchilada for the mullahs. Though Ayatollah Khomeini declared it a"Zionist plot against Islam" in the republic's early days, it has since been transformed into a symbol of a rising Islam on its way to global domination. Thus, any backtracking on the nuclear issue could spell the beginning of the end for Islamist radicalism in Iran.
But, if backtracking is not possible, mumatilah is.
Rouhani clearly hopes to establish a new channel with the Europeans, gradually driving a wedge between them and Washington. He'd then initiate informal contacts with Washington. The man he has nominated as foreign minister, Sayyed Muhammad Javad Zarif, was a longtime US resident and has numerous contacts in Washington, including Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry.
Rouhani clearly believes the Europeans joined the sanctionsto please the Americans - but, once new negotiations are under way, the Europeans will happily claim to have forced Iran to become "more moderate."
The phrase "more moderate" may be nonsensical, since one is either moderate or not. Nevertheless, this magic formula was a favorite of Javier Solana, the EU's former foreign-policy point-man, who attended Rouhani's inauguration do in Tehran.
The Obama administration could also be hoodwinked by mumatilah, since it's a sucker for "talks about talks" - as demonstrated by Kerry's "diplomatic coup" in arranging Israeli-Palestinian discussions. Obama would surely be in heaven if he could "engage" Iran, and claim he's achieved what the cursed George W. Bush did not.
Rouhani is no newcomer to mumatilah. He practiced it for years while serving as point-man on the nuclear issue. The time he bought enabled Iran to transform an embryonic project into a full-scale program covering the entire scientific and industrial cycle to produce a nuclear arsenal.
The perception that talks have resumed and that an agreement might be on the horizon would help ease tension. That, in turn, could stop the downward spiral of the rial, Iran's currency, and reduce pressure on its economy.
Even if sanctions aren't formally lifted, numerous countries and companies would start ignoring them, giving the mullahs more breathing space.
In the meantime, 4,000-plus centrifuges will continue to enrich uranium while Iran completes a plutonium plant, providing an alternative route to a nuclear arsenal, in Arak, west of Tehran.
Amir Taheri writes for the New York Post. His latest book is The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution.
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