f Egypt's judicial system, a remnant of British colonialism in the land of the Nile, decided independently to release Hosni Mubarak from prison, it deserves applause. And if the judges were acting as the long arm of Egypt's military government, then the praise should go to Col. Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. The release of the elderly and ill former president was a resounding slap in the face of the Muslim Brotherhood.
After the July 1952 revolution led by a group of Egyptian military officers, King Farouk was not put on trial or imprisoned. Rather, he was exiled abroad. But after the January 2011 revolution, the military allowed Mubarak and his sons to be put on trial and Mubarak did not set foot outside jail until Thursday.
What led to Mubarak's release? A renewed spirit among Mubarak supporters who were silent when he was deposed? A desire by the Egyptian military, ruling the country with bayonets, to aggravate the struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood?
The Mubarak era marked three decades of tyranny, but tyranny is customary in Egypt. Mubarak's trial and imprisonment were inconsistent with Egypt's norms of governance.
Mohammed Morsi, from the Muslim Brotherhood, was more violent in suppressing protests than Mubarak was. Now it is Morsi's turn to sit in prison.
The release of Mubarak to house arrest will have only a marginal influence on the fiery confrontation between the military and its opponents. Whoever killed two Egyptian security personnel this week did not do so because of Mubarak's imprisonment or release. The decision by the judges to give Mubarak his freedom back will not serve as fuel for the rise of a national protest movement.
Mubarak's release does not overshadow the main point -- the sides in Egypt have passed the point of no return. The map of the Middle East looks like an ongoing earthquake. There are momentary shakes in places like Lebanon, from where rockets were fired into Nahariya and Acre on Thursday. But the main areas of seismic activity are Syria and Egypt.
The world is watching indecisively. The Americans are hiding behind the Russian and Chinese vetoes at the U.N. Security Council to avoid intervening against the use of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar Assad. In Egypt, the West is cutting off the branch it sits on by coming out against the Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood. America is blowing wind into the sails of Islamic radicals.
Of course, a reasonable solution in Egypt would be for the sides to agree on a compromise. But at the moment, they are determined to dictate their will and not give up on their goals. After Mubarak's release, Sissi understands even more that there are no draws in this contest. If you do not win, you lose. For the Egyptian military, there will be no better opportunity than now to win, despite the challenges.
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